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Election Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term

That is Election Countdown, The Hill’s e-newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the most important tales on the marketing campaign path. We would love to listen to from you, so be at liberty to achieve out to Lisa at LHagen@thehill.com and Max at MGreenwood@thehill.com. with any questions, feedback, criticisms or meals suggestions (largely the latter, please). Click here to sign up.

 

We’re 7 days till the 2018 midterm elections and 735 days till the 2020 elections.

 

One week out from the midterm elections, Democrats and Republicans are fighting on the largest House battlefield in a number of cycles.

Even with every week to go, it is nonetheless unclear precisely what number of seats will flip in an unpredictable election cycle that is had a backdrop of political violence, intense polarization and racial animus.

However we not less than know what the battlefield seems to be like and it goes enormously past the important thing suburban seats Democrats have been concentrating on all cycle, although they are going to nonetheless be essential for the get together to get to the magic variety of 23 seats.

Within the final week, the most important Democratic teams are investing in 64 media markets, whereas GOP group are spending in 58 markets. And because the starting of the 12 months, Democrats and their supporters have outspent Republicans by a margin of greater than $125 million.

The expanded battlefield encompasses rather more conservative terrain the place President TrumpDonald John TrumpActivists call on DC officials to rename street in front of Saudi embassy after Khashoggi Five takeaways from the final Indiana Senate debate Avenatti says FBI told him he was targeted by alleged mail bomber MORE had double-digit margins of victory. And that is been highlighted by the 11th hour spending by each events’ marketing campaign committees and prime Home tremendous PACs.

The biggest exterior teams backing Democrats are sending mailers to redder districts held by Reps. John CarterJohn Rice CarterElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Dems seek to expand House fight one week before midterms Hollywood donors flood Dems with midterm cash MORE (R-Texas), Lamar SmithLamar Seeligson SmithElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Dems seek to expand House fight one week before midterms O’Rourke’s rise raises hopes for Texas Dems down ballot MORE (R-Texas), Vern BuchananVernon Gale BuchananMORE (R-Fla.) and Jackie WalorskiJacqueline (Jackie) R. WalorskiElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Dems seek to expand House fight one week before midterms America’s ball cap industry is in trouble MORE (R-Ind.) and within the district previously held by Republican Ron DeSantisRonald Dion DeSantisGillum: Trump, GOP opponent providing ‘cover’ for violent extremists Election Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Bernie Sanders to hold rally for Gillum in Florida MORE in Florida. Seats like these would solely get swept up if there’s a huge wave, however the transfer displays the arrogance of Democrats.

The Nationwide Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is now spending within the district held by Reps. Jaime Herrera BeutlerJaime Lynn Herrera BeutlerElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Dems seek to expand House fight one week before midterms Bloomberg quietly spends millions in TV ads MORE (R-Wash.) and in South Carolina’s 1st congressional district, the place the GOP candidate is Katie Arrington, who defeated Rep. Mark SanfordMarshall (Mark) Clement SanfordElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Dems seek to expand House fight one week before midterms Overnight Defense — Presented by The Embassy of the United Arab Emirates — Haley shocks Washington with resignation | Turkish officials reportedly conclude Saudis killed journalist | Trump eyes second Kim summit after midterms MORE (R) within the major. The GOP has additionally gone again in with spending to spice up Rep. Will HurdWilliam Ballard HurdElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Dems seek to expand House fight one week before midterms Vulnerable Republicans follow Trump’s lead on immigration MORE (R-Texas) and the highest Republican tremendous PACs lately spent on behalf of Reps. Scott TaylorScott William TaylorElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Bannon planning to campaign for Brat in Virginia Dems seek to expand House fight one week before midterms MORE (R-Va.) and Ted BuddTheodore (Ted) Paul BuddElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Dems seek to expand House fight one week before midterms Credit union group to spend .8 million for vulnerable Dem, GOP incumbents MORE (R-N.C.), who’re each in districts as soon as thought-about a attain for Democrats.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight breaks down why the battlefield has ballooned, concerning elements together with the excessive variety of GOP retirements, Democrats’ steep money benefit and Pennsylvania’s new congressional map.

 

Senate showdown

Trump is slated to journey to eight states over the ultimate week of the midterm elections. He plans to hold 11 campaign rallies in six days to spice up Republicans in prime Senate and Home races. Some states embody Florida, Montana, Indiana and Missouri–all house to marquee Senate races that’ll decide which get together controls the higher chamber.

 

Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Poll: Republican Gianforte tied with Dem challenger in Montana House race Trump Jr. and Guilfoyle release new ad blasting ‘mainstream media and liberal mob’ MORE (D-Mont.) mentioned on the Rocky Boy’s Indian Reservation that he would not suppose Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term as he considers 2020 run The Hill’s Morning Report — Presented by PhRMA — One week to the midterms: Election handicappers weigh in MORE‘s (D-Mass.) use of a DNA check to assert Native American heritage would “go the check.” However Tester dismissed the controversy across the check as insignificant, insisting that there have been extra necessary points to handle. “The actual situation that revolves round Native American individuals is poverty and except you are a gaming tribe, it is an issue and we have to determine our options to get it fastened,” Tester mentioned, according to The Hill’s Alexander Bolton.

 

Florida Gov. Rick Scott walked away when requested by a reporter on Tuesday whether or not he would help Trump’s proposal to finish birthright citizenship for youngsters of non-U.S. residents, the Miami Herald’s Alex Daugherty stories. In a statement obtained The Hill, Scott mentioned that he would wish to see the proposal earlier than deciding whether or not to help it, however argued that America’s present immigration is “damaged.” An aide to Scott mentioned that the governor had already begun strolling away when the query was posed and didn’t hear the reporter ask it.

 

Wave watch

President Trump is doubling down on his hard-line immigration stance within the remaining days earlier than the midterm elections, revisiting a tried-and-tested plan he hopes will hearth up his core supporters and get them to the polls on Election Day, The Hill’s Jordan Fabian stories. In an interview with Axios launched Tuesday, Trump vowed to end citizenship for youngsters of non-legal residents and undocumented immigrants born within the U.S., a change he proposed through the 2016 marketing campaign, regardless that birthright citizenship is enshrined within the Structure.

 

Home Majority PAC, a brilliant PAC backing Democratic congressional candidates, is canceling an $800,000 ad buy in Virginia’s 10th District – an indication that Democrats are feeling good about their probabilities of ousting incumbent Rep. Barbara ComstockBarbara Jean ComstockElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term House Majority PAC cancels ads for Comstock race The Hill’s Morning Report — Presented by PhRMA — One week to the midterms: Election handicappers weigh in MORE (R-Va.) in November. Comstock is going through a troublesome problem from Democrat Jennifer Wexton, who seems to have the momentum within the race. The Cook dinner Political Report charges the competition as “Lean Democrat.”

 

Rep. Steve StiversSteven (Steve) Ernst StiversElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Purina drops campaign contributions to Steve King, citing ‘recent statements’ Steve King fires back at GOP campaign chief: ‘Establishment Never Trumpers are complicit’ MORE (R-Ohio), Nationwide Republican Congressional Committee chairman, condemned recent remarks by Rep. Steve KingSteven (Steve) Arnold KingJewish leaders in Iowa tear into King’s ‘white supremacist views’ Election Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Purina drops campaign contributions to Steve King, citing ‘recent statements’ MORE (R-Iowa) backing white nationalist politicians. “Congressman Steve King’s latest feedback, actions, and retweets are utterly inappropriate. We should arise in opposition to white supremacy and hate in all varieties, and I strongly condemn this habits,” Stivers tweeted Tuesday. King got here beneath hearth for assembly with a far-right Austrian group and later defended the assembly by saying: “In the event that they have been in America pushing the platform that they push, they’d be Republicans.” Stivers’ feedback got here as polls show a tightening race for King.

 

Former Trump White Home chief strategist Stephen Bannon will campaign this weekend in Virginia for Rep. Dave Brat (R), who faces a troublesome reelection bid in opposition to Democratic challenger Abigail Spanberger.

 

Survey says…

Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) and state Sen. Laura Kelly (D) are just about tied within the state’s carefully watched gubernatorial race, according to a new Emerson College poll. Roughly 44 p.c of respondents mentioned they again Kobach, a hard-charging conservative who has allied himself carefully with Trump, whereas 43 p.c mentioned they help Kelly. Eight p.c reported backing unbiased Greg Orman, whereas one other four p.c mentioned they have been undecided.

 

A new poll from NBC News and Marist reveals Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) with a 6-point lead over her Republican opponent, Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyPavlich: Arizona doesn’t deserve Sinema Overnight Health Care — Presented by Purdue Pharma — Idaho’s GOP governor backs Medicaid expansion | ObamaCare enrollment unlikely to increase next year | Pfizer chief expects return to ‘business as normal’ on drug prices Election Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term MORE (R-Ariz.), in Arizona’s Senate race. Sinema at present leads McSally 50-44 p.c, in accordance with the survey, whereas 6 p.c of respondents mentioned they’re undecided or will vote for an additional candidate.  

 

Democrat Ben McAdams is main Republican Rep. Mia LoveLudmya (Mia) LoveElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Poll: Dem challenger leading Mia Love in Utah House race Republicans should prepare for Nancy Pelosi to wield the gavel MORE (Utah) by 6 factors within the nationally watched race to symbolize Utah’s 4th District, according to a new poll from KUTV 2News and Dixie Strategies. On the similar time, that survey discovered far fewer respondents maintain “very unfavorable” views of McAdams than Love – at 16 p.c versus 32.2 p.c.

 

new University of North Florida poll offers Democrat Andrew Gillum a 6-point lead over Republican Ron DeSantis in Florida’s gubernatorial race. Also from UNF: Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Scott walks away when asked about Trump plan to end birthright citizenship José Andrés endorses Nelson in Florida Senate race MORE (D-Fla.) and Scott are neck and neck, with 7 p.c of probably voters remaining undecided.

 

Regardless of weathering a barrage of ferocious GOP assaults, Democrat Antonio Delgado holds a 5-point lead over Rep. John FasoJohn James FasoElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Poll: Dem holds 5 point lead over GOP incumbent in NY House race Racial animus moves to the forefront in midterm battle MORE(R-N.Y.) within the race for New York’s 19th District, according to a Monmouth University poll. The survey reveals Delgado coming in at 49 p.c, whereas Faso trails at 44 p.c. That is a 1-point improve for Delgado and a 1-point lower for Faso because the final time Monmouth performed the survey in September.

 

Rep. Greg GianforteGregory Richard GianforteElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Poll: Republican Gianforte tied with Dem challenger in Montana House race Trump to make final midterm push with 11 rallies in six days MORE (R-Mont.) is tied with former Democratic state Rep. Kathlene Williams in Montana’s at-large Home race,according to a new poll from Gravis Marketing. Gianforte and Williams are in a lifeless warmth, with each candidates at 48 p.c. Trump nonetheless stays widespread in a state he gained by 20 factors, with an approval score of 58-38 p.c. Trump lately stumped for Gianforte in Montana. The president raised eyebrows for joking that Gianforte assaulting a reporter helped the congressman win the 2017 particular election.

 

What we’re waiting for

Marketing campaign path:

–Oct. 31: Former Vice President Joe BidenJoseph (Joe) Robinette BidenAvenatti says FBI told him he was targeted by alleged mail bomber Election Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Biden: ‘We need to recognize that words matter’ in wake of violence MORE might be in Bridgeton, Mo. for Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Senate map ‘historically difficult’ for Dems, says pollster Election Countdown: Violence casts cloud before midterms | Clinton opens door to 2020 | Trump calls Gillum a ‘thief’ | Dems worry about midterm message | Trump camp’s midterm ad doesn’t feature president MORE (D).

–Nov. 1: Biden might be in Fargo, N.D. for Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Election Countdown: Violence casts cloud before midterms | Clinton opens door to 2020 | Trump calls Gillum a ‘thief’ | Dems worry about midterm message | Trump camp’s midterm ad doesn’t feature president Biggest election winner? Polarization in America MORE (D).

–Nov. 2: Former President Obama will marketing campaign for Georgia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams in Atlanta. He’ll even be stumping for Democrat Andrew Gillum, who’s working for Florida governor, in Miami.

 

Trump rallies (All instances in ET):

–Oct. 31 in Fort Myers, Fla. at 7 p.m.

–Nov. 1 in Columbia, Mo. at 7:30 p.m.

–Nov. 2 in Huntington, W. Va. at four p.m.

–Nov. three in Pensacola, Fla. at 7:30 p.m.

 

Debates:

–Oct. 30: Indiana Senate debate

–Nov. 1: West Virginia Senate debate

–Nov. four: Georgia gubernatorial debate

 

Coming to a TV close to you

In a primary for the Home Democrats’ marketing campaign arm, the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee launched a multi-state, Spanish-language TV ad to spice up turnout amongst Hispanic voters. The 500,000 advert purchase will run by way of Election Day in eight media markets that’ll cowl main Home districts in Nevada, Texas, New Mexico and Utah. The advert encompasses a younger lady alongside her mom explaining why they’re going to vote on Nov. 6.

 

The translated script: “My mother has labored very laborious to offer me a greater future. I work in a hospital, I’ve a bachelor’s diploma and regardless that I need to get forward I can not proper now. We’d like a Congress that may struggle for us. And for that cause we’re going to vote for a change. We’re going to vote Tuesday, November 6. Collectively.”

 

In the meantime on the Republican aspect, the Congressional Management Fund is focusing its closing argument on immigration and the tax legislation. CLF is working distinction adverts within the remaining week in districts held by GOP Reps. Andy Barr (Ky.), Brian FitzpatrickBrian K. FitzpatrickElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Major GOP group leans into immigration, tax law in final week Group begins ‘Nuns on the Bus’ tour to protest Trump tax law ahead of midterms MORE (Pa.), Steve ChabotSteven (Steve) Joseph ChabotElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Major GOP group leans into immigration, tax law in final week Juan Williams: GOP plays the bigotry card in midterms MORE (Ohio) and Claudia Tenney (N.Y.) — all districts Trump gained excluding Fitzpatrick’s. The adverts tie the incumbents to Trump and his financial and immigration agenda, whereas persevering with to hyperlink Democrats to Home Minority Chief Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia D’Alesandro PelosiElection Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Trump visits Pittsburgh synagogue Birthright citizenship vow shows Trump doubling down on immigration gambit MORE (D-Calif.).

 

In a donor memo obtained by The Hill, CLF government director Corry Bliss mentioned Republicans have to promote that distinction within the greater than 20 races he mentioned stay too near name. “Successful the shut races will come right down to getting Republicans to vote and defining the selection.”

 

Race for the White Home

Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonAvenatti says FBI told him he was targeted by alleged mail bomber Election Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Silence of ‘the lambs’: The deafening quietude of the FISA court and John Roberts MORE‘s workforce says she won’t run for president regardless of hypothesis she’d mount a 3rd White Home bid. “She’s extra prone to win Powerball,” Philippe Reines, Clinton’s longtime adviser, advised The Hill’s Amie Parnes on Monday.

 

Former New York Metropolis Mayor Michael Bloomberg said he’ll “take a look” at a 2020 run. The previous unbiased re-registered as a Democrat earlier this month. However he insisted that his focus stays on the midterms, spending tens of thousands and thousands on promoting to spice up Democrats’ efforts to take again the Home.

 

Sen. Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersDem senators request classified briefing on Khashoggi Election Countdown: One week from midterms | House battlefield expands | Trump doubles down on immigration | GOP campaign chief rebukes Steve King | Clinton team quiets 2020 talk | Sanders won’t promise to serve full Senate term Bernie Sanders to hold rally for Gillum in Florida MORE (I-Vt.) declined to pledge to serve a full six-year time period if reelected in November. Sanders is extremely favored to win a 3rd time period and is seen as a possible White Home hopeful in 2020. “The straightforward fact is I’ve not made that call. However I am not going to take a seat right here and let you know that I’ll not run. I’ll. However alternatively, I’ll not,” Sanders mentioned at a Monday discussion board relating to a possible presidential bid.

 

The Hill’s Election Countdown was written by Lisa Hagen, Max Greenwood, Rachel Cohen and James Wellemeyer.


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